Analysis: does Obama win matter to Costa Rica?

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With US President Barack Obama staying in office via an electoral landslide, in Costa Rica the questions become less vague or theoretical, and more focused on the internal effects. Following are 4 points of reaction in Costa Rica as the president starts his second term. Most Ticos like Obama — after getting through the initial name game (Obama vs. Osama), most Costa Ricans were pleased to see Obama take office. The divisive CAFTA agreement didn’t help the Bush image, neither did the arm-twisting that put Costa Rica and its oxcarts into the “Coalition of the Willing”.

Ticos were happy for Obama and the “change” mantra sounded good to them. The initial health care package was similar to what Ticos enjoy here, so that was not a hotly debated issue here. Given that Obama WAS able to “right the ship”, the resulting economic boost resonated here and helped those with export sector business or employed by US firms. So Obama started with a good image here and has kept it intact, it stands to reason that most are pleased that he will remain in office for a second term.

Good News, Recovering Nicely — the much debated “anemic” recovery was a big issue for the working and middle class in the US, which remains Costa Rica’s largest trading partner. Although the recovery isn’t as strong as most would have wished, from Costa Rica’s perspective the positive signs are encouraging.

Because of the lingering recession effects, US companies are still looking to save costs, which benefits the outsourcing / business process sector and manufacturing for exports, such as medical devices.

In addition, the steady increase in US jobs and the US real estate market is good news for the tourism sector, as consumer confidence rises people will be more willing to spend money on luxuries like travel to Costa Rica. It also boosts exports produced by local companies and agriculture.

Financial Concerns — The banking and financial sector crisis hit hard in Costa Rica, but just briefly. Although real estate and construction did suffer more than other areas. An early problem was the global paralysis of funds, with those who had cash suddenly wanted to hang on and big players needing cash sucking up those funds that were available. Banks here couldn’t move funds in or out and the system was clogged up. But once this crisis was managed, the underlying health of the Costa Rican banking sector was apparent and a crisis here was averted.

However, the resolution (or not) of the “fiscal cliff” crisis will be watched as closely here as in other nations around the world. A smooth and negotiated resolution will benefit everyone, while a lot of political grand standing could damage markets around the world which would affect Costa Rica.

Foreign Affairs — Apparently Obama would have won in a popular landslide if the election were held outside the US, judging from news reports around the world. Costa Rica’s Chancellor Carlos Roverssi told local media that the election result wouldn’t change much for Costa Rica, except in possible commitments due to the large (and growing) Latino voting population in the US.

It must be recognized that in the 3rd debate, on foreign policy, most of the discussion was China and the Middle East. Only Romney mentioned Latin America as a possible trading partner, pointing out that combined as a whole the economies south of the border were equal to the size of the Chinese economy.

It remains to be seen whether or not the second Obama Administration will pay more attention to Latin America. With operations winding down in Afghanistan and possibly new blood in the State Department, there is a possibility. But obviously the Euro Zone economy, China, Arab Spring complications, and Iran’s nuclear weapons program could keep Latin America on the back burner.

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