Brace yourselves: It may be merely a political ploy or it may be a mega-scandal brewing. But prosecutors are investigating whether a million dollars of building funds for poverty housing may have been hijacked by the Arias Foundation.

The original $2,488,500 donation was earmarked for the Housing Ministry by Taiwan to fund housing in Pavas. In 2007, the money was supposed to have been deposited in a trust — but the ministry only got 60% of the money.

On Jan. 5, 2007, the Arias Foundation reported a million dollar donation from Taiwan. Investigators ask, is this the same money?

But at the same time, investigators also are probing into the doings of Fernando Zumbado, the Housing Minister during the Arias Administration (2006-10). In short, the math doesn’t add up.

But one reason to think that it all might be a political attack from either a rival party or from within is that one of the Arias Administration’s top officials was then-Presidency Minister Rodrigo Arias who now is a candidate for 2014 presidential nomination from the National Liberation Party.

The twin investigations are being sorted out by the Propriety, Transparency and Anti-Corruption prosecutor, Juan Carlos Cubillo. Supposedly, the full two and nearly a half million dollar Taiwan contribution was held in trust in the Central American Economic Integration Bank, so Cubillo has his work cut out for him.

This is not the first time a Taiwanese donation, made before former President Oscar Arias severed relations with Taiwan in order to establish relations with mainland China, has been questioned.

Taiwanese money for housing was investigated earlier when it was used to fund surveys of poverty by polling companies, many of which just happened to be campaign contributors of Liberation or party supporters.

At least one court threw out accusations against administration officials and specifically against then-Presidency Minister Arias, the president’s brother, deeming the creative use of the funds not illegal.

Commentary: Cubillo’s task appears daunting because of the change of status of Taiwan from being a longtime ally of Costa Rica to being brushed out into the diplomatic cold. To obtain bank transfer data, he must now use the Vienna Convention and cross his fingers.

Stung by the dumping of longtime ties with the island Chinese nation, the Taiwanese just could give the whole business a cold shoulder. But some evidence can be easily confirmed closer to home.

Already prosecutors have talked with Citizen Action Party (PAC) lawmaker Juan Carlos Mendoza and Liberation party presidential nominee candidate Fernando Berrocal.

Both are presumed eye witnesses. Mendoza and his committee investigated the donation earlier and Berrocal, as Security Minister at the time, signed the trust agreement between Taiwan and the bank.

Meanwhile, Taiwan’s officials appear to be shying away from the whole business. The national newspaper La Nacion last September visited the foreign ministry of that nation and was unable to get an answer to its questions.

In July, 2011, the paper also tried to contact the ambassador to Costa Rica during that era, Tzu-Dan Wu, but he refused to comment, at least by phone. Since China claims Taiwan as a break-away province, the latter country appears still smarting at its diplomatic abandonment.

Arias Foundation director Luis Alberto Cordero responded to questions about the $1 million by indignantly denying that the money ever came to their funds. The foundation, established by money Oscar Arias, funds various projects of national interest.

Although no scandal as ever touched the foundation before, Costa Ricans are suspicious of the government and even blatantly political insinuations of corruption may appear credible to many.

Unlike his first term as president in the 1980s, Arias’s second term was marred by accusations of corruption. Moreover, his handpicked successor, President Laura Chinchilla, has run an administration rife with scandal.

What is known is suspicious enough — Zumbado as housing minister asked for 60% of the donation which the bank agrees was deposited to housing. The second payment of a million dollars, say bank officials, was never deposited.

Where did it go? That is the million dollar question!